UBS Warns of 93% Recession Probability Amid ’Soggy Growth’ Outlook

BTCC / BTCC Square / Global Cryptocurrency /

Author:

Release Time:

2025-09-11 19:16:03

BTCCSquare news:

UBS's proprietary factor model, relying on hard data from May to July, signals a 93% chance of a U.S. recession. Metrics like employment, consumption, and industrial production paint a concerning picture, though the bank stops short of a formal recession forecast. "Sustained weakness" characterizes the current trend, with sideways movement since May.

Credit markets and the inverted yield curve compound the unease, pushing aggregate recession probability to 52% in July—up from 37% in January. Yet equities defy gloom: the S&P 500 has climbed 12% year-to-date, illustrating a stark divergence between macroeconomic warnings and market optimism.

By:

Log in to Reply

Minnesota’s SCFCU to Launch Cloud Dollar Stablecoin in 2025, Pioneering Credit Union Adoption

Articles on this site are sourced from public networks or curated by AI for informational purposes only and do not represent BTCC’s views. Original rights belong to the respective authors. For copyright concerns, please contact [email protected]. BTCC assumes no liability for the accuracy, timeliness, or completeness of this information, and disclaims all liability arising from reliance on such content. This content is for reference only and should not be taken as investment, legal, or commercial advice.