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UBS Warns of 93% Recession Probability Amid ’Soggy Growth’ Outlook
UBS Warns of 93% Recession Probability Amid ’Soggy Growth’ Outlook
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BTCCSquare news:
UBS's proprietary factor model, relying on hard data from May to July, signals a 93% chance of a U.S. recession. Metrics like employment, consumption, and industrial production paint a concerning picture, though the bank stops short of a formal recession forecast. "Sustained weakness" characterizes the current trend, with sideways movement since May.
Credit markets and the inverted yield curve compound the unease, pushing aggregate recession probability to 52% in July—up from 37% in January. Yet equities defy gloom: the S&P 500 has climbed 12% year-to-date, illustrating a stark divergence between macroeconomic warnings and market optimism.
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